Key facts
- Rough rice futures have declined 8.6% in the last three months and 20% over the past year.
- Excessive U.S. spring precipitation led to reduced rice acreage.
- India's export restrictions in late 2023 caused a global price surge, but this has subsided with record global production forecasts.
- Global ending stocks for 2024/25 are projected at 183.2 million tonnes.
- The U.S. 2026/27 all rice season average farm price is projected to increase to $14.90 per cwt.
- U.S. ending stocks for all rice are forecast to reach a 4-year low of 30.9 million cwt for 2026/27.
Despite an excellent U.S. crop and steady demand, rough rice futures have experienced a significant downturn, dropping 8.6% in the past three months and 20% over the past year. This decline is largely attributed to a global supply glut and shifts in international trade policies, particularly from India, the world's largest rice exporter.
Excessive spring precipitation in the U.S. Mississippi Delta forced farmers to reduce planted acreage, signaling lower domestic supplies. However, this was overshadowed by record global production forecasts for 2024/25, projected at 535.8 million tonnes, with global ending stocks anticipated at 183.2 million tonnes. India's earlier export bans in late 2023 had temporarily driven global prices up, but the market has since adjusted as other nations like Pakistan and Thailand stepped in to fill supply gaps, and importers diversified their sources.
The U.S. dollar's significant plunge in the first half of 2025, typically a tailwind for exports, had a muted impact on rice prices due to increased competition from countries like Brazil and Paraguay. Looking ahead, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts a tighter supply outlook for the 2026/27 season, with all rice production lowered to a 39-year low of 153.3 million cwt and ending stocks revised to a 4-year low of 30.9 million cwt. Reflecting these tighter domestic conditions, the projected average farm price for all rice in 2026/27 has been raised to $14.90 per cwt.