Key facts
- A new US-Iran deal, the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), has been signed by Presidents Trump and Pezeshkian.
- The deal aims to end a three-month war and extends a ceasefire, with 60 days of negotiations for a permanent end.
- Critics in Washington and Israel view the deal as a strategic defeat for the US, failing to achieve stated war aims.
- The MOU waives sanctions on Iranian oil sales, lifts the US blockade of Iranian ports, and allows Iran to recover frozen assets.
- Iran is expected to receive significant economic benefits, potentially including $100bn in frozen assets and a $300bn reconstruction fund.
- Gulf states may pay Iran to end the war, with potential damages to Iran estimated at $2 trillion.
A new US-Iran deal, the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), signed by Presidents Donald Trump and Pezeshkian, aims to end a three-month war and extends a ceasefire, surprising regional rivals. The agreement has been met with alarm in Israel and Gulf states, who view it as a strategic shift that weakens their regional standing.
Critics in Washington and Israel have called the deal a debacle, arguing that it achieves none of the stated war aims and leaves the US in a weaker position. Former US officials and analysts suggest that the US deployed its power foolishly and recklessly, losing significant power and influence vis-a-vis Iran, with deterrence gone.
The MOU waives all sanctions on Iranian oil sales, lifts the US blockade of Iranian ports, and establishes a process for Iran to start recovering its frozen assets, estimated at over $100 billion. Experts note that Iran's nuclear program is already years damaged, making any proposed moratorium on enrichment less significant. Critics also point out that Iran is set to reap substantial economic benefits, potentially receiving its frozen funds and a $300 billion reconstruction fund, with Gulf states possibly contributing.
Analysts suggest Iran outlasted the US in the conflict, benefiting from strategic patience as concerns over rising energy prices and global economic catastrophe pressured the US. The deal comes after significant damage was reportedly inflicted on Iran's military industrial base, civilian infrastructure, and energy assets, with total war damages estimated at $2 trillion.