Key facts
- Oman is emerging as a key beneficiary of a new Middle East order shaped by US-Iran relations.
- Analysts note Oman's conciliatory approach to Iran has become a model for other Gulf states.
- Oman's historical role as a mediator has positioned it to have significant influence over Strait of Hormuz transit.
- The UAE reportedly agreed to pay Iran billions to cease attacks, signaling a shift in regional dynamics.
- US Vice President JD Vance confirmed no tolls would be charged through the Strait of Hormuz during the current ceasefire extension.
Oman is emerging as a central player in a new Middle East order, a significant shift from its outlier status during a recent conflict with Iran. While other Gulf states initially aligned with the US, Oman maintained a conciliatory stance towards Tehran, a position now being adopted by its neighbors as they seek to mend ties with Iran amid expectations of sanctions relief.
Analysts suggest this shift is driven by evolving regional security and economic interests, with Oman's historical role as a mediator positioning it to wield considerable influence, particularly concerning transit through the vital Strait of Hormuz. This contrasts sharply with earlier tensions, including threats from US President Donald Trump towards Oman for not condemning Iran's stance on the strait.
Despite initial frustrations from countries like Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE over Oman's neutrality, these nations are now reportedly engaging in their own diplomatic efforts with Iran. The UAE, in particular, is said to have agreed to substantial payments to Iran to halt attacks, underscoring the broader regional trend of accommodating Tehran.
Oman's strategic approach, which preserved its mediation capabilities, has proven prescient. Legal experts note that both Oman and Iran could leverage international maritime law to impose fees for services in the Strait of Hormuz. As a 60-day ceasefire extension is in place, the issue of tolls remains a point of negotiation, with Oman expected to have a significant say in any future arrangements for the waterway.