Key facts
- China refined 85% of the world's rare earths in 2025, down from 90% in 2023.
- China's share of critical minerals refining rose from 70% to 72% between 2023 and 2025.
- Global demand for critical minerals is projected to more than double by 2040.
- The U.S. awarded $16 million to 16 mining school programs.
- The U.S. needs 6,000 mining engineers over the next decade.
- The Trump administration reports signing or approving over 150 critical minerals deals worth more than $40 billion.
The United States is intensifying efforts to reduce China's dominance in the global critical minerals supply chain, a sector crucial for powering the world's technology manufacturing and energy transition. Beijing has cultivated significant economic and political leverage through decades of investment in mineral-rich countries via initiatives like the Belt and Road.
While U.S. and Malaysian investments have slightly chipped away at China's share of rare earth refining, China's overall critical minerals refining share actually increased from 70% to 72% between 2023 and 2025. The International Energy Agency projects global demand for these minerals will more than double by 2040, driven by renewable energy technologies and electric vehicles.
This reliance on China creates vulnerabilities, as Beijing has previously used critical mineral trade as a geopolitical bargaining chip. To address a key weakness – a lack of trained workforce – the Department of Energy (DOE) announced this week that it is awarding $16 million through the PROSPECT Planning Prize. Sixteen mining school programs will each receive $1 million to develop domestic talent capable of producing, processing, recovering, and recycling critical minerals.
DOE Assistant Secretary of Energy Audrey Robertson stated the prize is designed with measurable outcomes to meet the needs of American reindustrialization. The U.S. is also pursuing more deals with primary producers, with the Trump administration reporting over 150 critical minerals deals worth more than $40 billion approved. However, the U.S. still lags behind China, facing challenges in markets where Beijing has a strong established presence, such as in South America's lithium triangle where political sentiment now favors regional value addition.