Key facts
- Best-case scenario projects 1.7-1.8 C rise by mid-century.
- Greenhouse gas emissions need to fall 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040.
- Current national plans would cut emissions by only 5-8% by 2030.
Global warming is now projected to exceed previous estimates, with even the most optimistic scenario seeing average temperatures rise to 1.7-1.8 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by mid-century, according to a UN report released on Wednesday. Despite a rapid expansion of renewable energy and climate policies reducing emissions in many countries, the UN Environment Programme report stated that "urgent and stringent" cuts are still needed to achieve this best-case outcome. Greenhouse gas emissions would need to fall 18% from 2025 levels by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040. Current national plans are projected to cut emissions by only 5-8% by 2030 and 11-15% by 2035. The report projected global warming of 2.8 Celsius by 2100 under current policies, or 2.6 C if countries fully implement existing climate pledges, both higher than last year's projections. UN Secretary-General António Guterres stated that "Overshoot is not surrender" and that temperatures can still be brought back below 1.5 degrees by the end of the century.