Key facts
- A new Labour leader could be installed by July 17, or by August 29 if a ballot is needed.
- A POLITICO Poll found 54% of UK adults favor a leadership contest over an immediate selection.
- Andy Burnham is the front-runner to succeed Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
- Burnham won the Makerfield by-election, allowing him to run for party leadership.
- Wes Streeting endorsed Burnham, effectively clearing his path to leadership.
Andy Burnham is positioned to become the next leader of the UK Labour Party and Prime Minister, following Keir Starmer's resignation. However, public opinion suggests a divided sentiment regarding the process of his ascension.
A POLITICO Poll conducted by Public First indicates that while UK adults desire new leadership, they are not in favor of an immediate, uncontested transfer of power. Only 20% of respondents believe Burnham should be immediately made Labour leader if he won the Makerfield by-election, which he did. Conversely, 54% of adults support holding a leadership contest, even if it prolongs uncertainty about who will serve as prime minister.
Burnham is favored over Starmer and other political figures in head-to-head matchups, with 61% believing he would make a better prime minister. Nominations for the Labour leadership open on July 9, and if Burnham is the sole contender, he could become prime minister by July 17. This path, however, presents political challenges, as opponents are already questioning his democratic mandate.
Burnham could seek a mandate by calling a general election, though this is unlikely until 2029 and could result in Labour losing seats. The poll suggests Labour's best strategy may be to replace Starmer with Burnham and hope for improved fortunes before the next general election.
Respondents cited fairness, the opportunity for debate, and the chance for other candidates to run as reasons for preferring a leadership election. Advantages of an immediate coronation include avoiding a lengthy contest and allowing the government to focus on its work. Labour voters also see it as a way to prevent internal party arguments and project decisiveness.
Burnham has stated it is too early to determine if he will call a general election. Analysts suggest he must weigh the risk of calling an election now while he is popular against the potential for losing a parliamentary majority if Reform UK gains traction.