Key facts
- U.S. payrolls have reached record highs, but job growth has slowed compared to historical averages.
- The S&P 500 has hit a new record 64 times since January 2025.
- U.S. manufacturing activity has expanded for seven months and hit its highest level since May 2022.
- The U.S. had 95,000 fewer factory jobs in June than before Trump returned to the White House in January 2025.
- Manufacturers have added only 18,000 jobs so far this year, averaging 3,000 per month.
President Donald Trump has been actively promoting his economic record, citing record stock market highs and job growth. However, a closer examination of the data reveals a more nuanced picture, with voter sentiment showing significant frustration over the economy and the cost of living.
While the U.S. has seen record numbers of Americans employed, the pace of job growth has slowed considerably compared to previous periods, even outside of recessionary times. Job creation averaged 9,700 per month last year and 92,000 per month so far this year, which is considered unimpressive by historical standards.
The stock market, particularly the S&P 500, has experienced a rally with numerous record highs, attributed to strong corporate profits and investor enthusiasm for artificial intelligence. However, market volatility persists, influenced by geopolitical uncertainties and skepticism surrounding AI valuations.
Manufacturing activity has shown improvement, with factory output reaching its highest level in over four years. Despite this resurgence, the sector has not generated a corresponding boom in hiring. The U.S. has fewer factory jobs now than before Trump's return to office, with only a modest increase of 3,000 jobs per month this year. Experts suggest that automation and the rising cost of imported materials due to tariffs are contributing factors, with AI investment also playing a role in the manufacturing upswing.
Despite Trump's claims of skyrocketing exports, the overall economic picture remains mixed, with factors like high interest rates, immigration policies, and the retirement of Baby Boomers contributing to slower job growth.