Key facts
- Trump and allies claim increased immigration enforcement caused a historic drop in US homicides.
- Experts say there is no data to prove mass deportations lower crime rates.
- Research shows no relationship between immigrants and US homicide rates.
- The US homicide rate decline started in 2023, under President Biden.
- The Department of Justice launched a $25m grant program for victims of crimes by undocumented migrants.
President Donald Trump and his allies are asserting that increased immigration enforcement and deportations are responsible for a historic drop in US homicide rates. Trump stated during a UN General Assembly speech that the US has 'the most secure border in the world' and that this has resulted in the 'largest drop in violent crime ever recorded.' Vice President JD Vance echoed this sentiment at a rally, attributing the crime reduction to removing 'violent criminals' from the country.
However, experts and researchers dispute these claims, stating there is no data to support a causal relationship between mass deportations or enhanced immigration enforcement and lower crime rates. Law professor Pratheepan Gulasekaram of the University of Colorado, Boulder, described the administration's claims as 'specious' and originating from a 'fact-free world.'
Furthermore, researchers note that the significant decrease in the US homicide rate began in 2023, during President Biden's administration, not during Trump's second term. Gulasekaram suggested that xenophobia contributes to the appeal of these claims, playing on a sentiment that foreigners are the source of societal ills.
Other conservatives, like Erich Pratt, vice-president of Gun Owners of America, have also linked the falling homicide rates to Trump's immigration policies, such as deporting gang members and ending 'catch-and-release' policies. However, a Guardian analysis indicated that over 75% of individuals facing deportation proceedings for the first time had no prior criminal convictions. Data from the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) showed that only 34 out of more than 18,400 individuals arrested by ICE between 2025 and June this year were convicted of homicide.
It remains unclear how many undocumented migrants are incarcerated for murder convictions, as state prison data does not typically track immigration status. A Government Accountability Office report also noted a lack of comprehensive federal data on the citizenship status of incarcerated individuals.
Trump has a long history of linking undocumented immigrants to crime, citing cases like Kate Steinle and Laken Riley. Sociology professor Michael Light of the University of Wisconsin-Madison stated that while increased enforcement has coincided with decreased homicides, attributing the decline solely to immigration policy is problematic and could lead to poor public policy if the causes are misdiagnosed.
This week, the Department of Justice announced a $25 million grant program to aid victims of crimes committed by undocumented migrants and fund prevention efforts. Both DHS and the White House reiterated their claims about deportations being the cause of falling crime rates but did not provide supporting evidence when contacted by The Guardian.