Thai September CPI rises 2.82% on year, below forecast

Key facts

• Thailand's headline consumer price index rose 2.82% in September from a year earlier.
• The September reading was below the 3.06% forecast in a Reuters poll.
• The inflation rate remained within the Bank of Thailand's target range of 1% to 3%.
• Core CPI, excluding energy and fresh food, rose 1.50% in September year-on-year.
• The ministry expects headline CPI to rise further in the fourth quarter.
• The ministry adjusted its 2026 inflation forecast to 1.8% to 2.2%.

Thailand's headline consumer price index (CPI) increased 2.82% in September from a year earlier, a rise that fell short of market expectations, according to data from the commerce ministry.

The September reading followed a 2.53% annual increase in the previous month, driven by higher fuel and food prices. The latest figure was below the 3.06% forecast in a Reuters poll and remained within the Bank of Thailand's target inflation range of 1% to 3%.

The ministry anticipates that headline CPI will increase further in the fourth quarter, with October's pace projected to accelerate from September's level, Nantapong Chiralerspong, head of the ministry's Trade Policy and Strategy Office, told a briefing. He added that recent flooding is expected to have only a minor impact on inflation.

The ministry revised its 2026 inflation forecast to a range of 1.8% to 2.2%, up from a previous estimate of 1.5% to 2.5%, taking into account the impact of the floods. For the January-September period, headline inflation averaged 1.54%.

The core CPI, which excludes volatile energy and fresh food prices, rose 1.50% in September year-on-year, aligning with a forecast of 1.54%. In a separate comment last month, assistant central bank governor Don Nakornthab described monetary policy as "very, very accommodative." The central bank maintained its key interest rate at 1.00% at its August review, with its next rate meeting scheduled for October 28.