Key facts
- Current El Niño is the strongest since the 1950s, with Pacific Ocean temperatures potentially exceeding normal levels by more than 3°C.
- Warmer-than-normal conditions are expected across northern US, Europe, and parts of Asia this winter.
- Short-lived cold blasts and severe snow or ice storms remain a possibility, particularly in late January and early February.
- Southern US expected to be cooler and wetter; Northern US, Europe, and parts of Asia warmer and drier.
- Hurricane season has been unusually quiet with no storms hitting the US East Coast.
Meteorologist James Block expressed high confidence that warmer-than-normal conditions will prevail across major energy-demand regions including the northern US, Europe, and parts of Asia this winter, potentially moderating heating demand amid tight energy supplies. The current El Niño is considered the strongest since the 1950s, with Pacific Ocean temperatures potentially exceeding normal levels by more than 3°C. While milder winters are generally expected, Block warned of the possibility of short-lived severe weather events like snowstorms and ice storms, most likely between late January and early February. The event is forecast to peak in January and gradually weaken, returning to normal by May 2027. Regional outlooks suggest warmer and drier conditions for Europe and parts of Asia, while the southern US may experience cooler and wetter weather.