Key facts
- ECMWF EPS forecast shows a 20% chance of tropical storm/hurricane in Caribbean/Gulf in 15 days.
- Risk is concentrated between days 12-15 of the forecast period.
Tropical storm risk in Caribbean/Gulf rises to 20% in 15 days
IN SHORT
The ECMWF EPS forecast indicates a 20% chance of tropical storm or hurricane activity in the Caribbean/Gulf between days 12-15. This elevated risk, higher than climatology, is influenced by an approaching favorable Madden-Julian Oscillation period. Tropical forcing analogs also suggest a pattern favoring the W. Grain Belt and drier conditions further east, making verification critical.
Key Numbers
15 daysforecast period
10ensemble members indicating tropical storm/hurricane
50total ensemble members
12-15days for tropical storm/hurricane risk
20%chance of tropical storm/hurricane
Who's Involved
ECMWF EPS
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Ensemble Prediction System
Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)
atmospheric phenomenon influencing tropical weather patterns
↳ Why This Matters
Increased storm activity in the Caribbean/Gulf can disrupt energy production, refining, and shipping, leading to crude oil and natural gas price volatility. The forecast also suggests potential impacts on grain belt conditions, affecting agricultural commodity markets.