Key facts
- Analyst Greg Gillinger said the encounter "looks like an attack rehearsal" and called it Russia's most aggressive satellite posture he has seen.
- US official Thomas DiNanno said Cosmos 2612 maneuvered dangerously close to a commercial satellite, conduct consistent with on-orbit weapons operations.
- Cosmos 2612 came within a kilometer of X36 around mid-October, with some analysts saying a few hundred meters or less.
- Two sibling Russian satellites were drifting toward the orbital path of ICEYE's X37, Gillinger and tracking firm COMSPOC said.
- Germany's Major General Michael Traut said such maneuvers are not in themselves evidence Russia was preparing an attack.
- Russia's defence ministry did not respond to a request for comment.
A Russian military satellite that approached a Western commercial satellite in mid-October could have been rehearsing an attack, a military space specialist said, and two related Russian craft were heading toward another Western satellite, Reuters reported on November 5.
US Under Secretary of State Thomas DiNanno said on X that Russia's Cosmos 2612 had been "intentionally maneuvering dangerously close to a commercial satellite" in conduct "consistent with on-orbit weapons operations." The satellite it approached, X36, is operated by ICEYE US, a subsidiary of Finland-based ICEYE, which provides radar imagery to Western governments and militaries, including Ukraine. Three space specialists described the incident as one of the closest known approaches by a Russian military spacecraft to a commercial satellite in low altitude orbit.
The encounter "looks like an attack rehearsal," said Greg Gillinger, a senior space analyst at Integrity ISR, a US company that provides training to US space forces. "This is the most aggressive posture I've seen Russia take in terms of threatening satellites from another nation," he told Reuters. Gillinger, a former US Air Force intelligence officer who has tracked the Russian satellites, said Cosmos 2612 appeared to be testing kinetic attack-related capability because such a close approach would not be needed for intelligence collection or electronic interference.
Russia's defence ministry did not respond to a request for comment. Moscow has repeatedly warned that commercial Western satellites helping Ukraine could become legitimate targets for retaliation. Ann Stevens, head of ICEYE US, told Reuters X36 "has been and will continue to be a productive satellite" and that its constellation of radar-imaging satellites is resilient in the event of disruption.