Key facts
- Russia's regional security and trade blocs, the CSTO and EAEU, are showing signs of internal fracturing.
- Member states like Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan are signaling reluctance to be drawn into the Russia-Ukraine war.
- Belarus, a key Russian ally, is maneuvering to assert its sovereignty amidst pressure from both Ukraine and Russia.
- Armenia's Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is publicly questioning the effectiveness of the Eurasian Economic Union.
- Ukraine's drone capabilities are impacting Russian forces and influencing the actions of Russia's allies.
Vladimir Putin's influence over regional alliances appears to be diminishing, with both the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) facing internal challenges. Ukrainian drone strikes have not only impacted Russian forces but have also contributed to a fracturing of these Moscow-led blocs.
Belarus, described as a "captive ally" of the Kremlin, has shown signs of distancing itself. Following an ultimatum from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Belarusian leader Aleksandr Lukashenko appeared to partially comply, stating Minsk did not want to be drawn into the war. Lukashenko subsequently traveled to Beijing, where he received an endorsement for Belarus' sovereignty and territorial integrity from Chinese leader Xi Jinping, highlighting the limits of Moscow's leverage.
The CSTO, Russia's equivalent of NATO, faces questions about its collective defense provisions. Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan have indicated they have no intention of participating in the Russia-Ukraine war, suggesting that any activation of military assistance clauses would require parliamentary approval and could face opposition. A Russian military blog reported that a Kyrgyz Foreign Ministry official stated that an act of aggression against Belarus would need a UN Security Council resolution for the CSTO to respond, a scenario unlikely to materialize due to potential vetoes.
The EAEU is also experiencing a credibility crisis, with Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan complaining that the bloc primarily serves Russia's economic interests. Kazakhstan is considering a six-month ban on wheat imports, including from other EAEU members, to protect its farmers. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, who seeks closer integration with Western institutions, is also challenging the EAEU's effectiveness. Pashinyan is using Russia's import bans on Armenian food products, imposed prior to his reelection, to expose the EAEU as a "fictional" trade organization, as Armenian goods find new markets without quality control concerns.