Key facts
- Keir Starmer's aides are preparing for a potential Labour leadership contest.
- Andy Burnham is anticipated to challenge Starmer if he wins the Makerfield byelection.
- Reform UK and the new Restore Britain party are seen as potential disruptors.
- A YouGov poll indicates a majority of Labour members would back Burnham over Starmer.
- Starmer's allies believe he is determined to fight any leadership challenge.
- Some allies suggest Starmer might offer Burnham a significant government role.
Keir Starmer's closest aides are actively planning for a potential Labour leadership contest, anticipating a challenge from Andy Burnham should he win the upcoming Makerfield byelection. Despite Starmer's reported determination to fight any contest, allies acknowledge that his position may ultimately be untenable, particularly if Labour's prospects appear dim against the Reform UK party under his leadership. The emergence of the hard-right Restore Britain party is also noted as a factor that could influence the political landscape.
Sources close to Starmer suggest he is prepared to defend his leadership vigorously, with plans to potentially sack ministers who publicly support Burnham. However, a significant portion of Labour members, according to a YouGov poll, would favor Burnham in a leadership race. Starmer's allies are banking on Burnham facing greater scrutiny and losing momentum after the byelection, while also arguing that a leadership contest would be detrimental to the government's ability to function.
Burnham himself has indicated he would participate in a leadership contest if he returns to Westminster. Despite internal skepticism, Starmer's team is reportedly readying a strategy to counter any challenge. Some allies suggest a potential accommodation, with Burnham being offered a significant role in government, though trust between the two figures is reportedly low. Ultimately, some close to Starmer concede that the decision about his leadership may be taken out of his hands.