Key facts
- Trader 0xA2 wagered $609,644 at 36% odds that Republicans win no Senate swing states, a position now valued at $1.48 million, per the report.
- Polymarket traders put a 14% chance on an Alaska upset that would erase most of the unrealized gain, according to the report.
- The trader also realized $106,115 by predicting a Democratic win in the Texas Senate race, according to the report.
- The top 10 Polymarket users profited more than $170,000 combined, per the platform leaderboard cited in the report.
- Midterm markets drew more than $546 million in notional volume over two weeks, per Prediction.com data cited in the report.
A Polymarket trader identified as 0xA2 held $917,000 in profit on November 4, topping the platform's daily leaderboard after Democrats took both the House of Representatives and the Senate in the US midterms, according to the report.
Most of the gain is unrealized. The trader wagered $609,644 that Republicans would win no Senate swing states when Polymarket odds stood at 36%, and the market has since moved to 87%, valuing the stake at $1.48 million, according to the report. Polymarket traders put a 14% chance on an Alaska result that would reverse that position.
A separate $106,115 gain from predicting a Democratic win in the Texas Senate race has been realized, the report said. The report also cited a $1.42 million active position on the US not confirming that aliens exist before 2027.
The top 10 Polymarket users profited more than $170,000 combined, per the leaderboard cited in the report. Prediction.com data cited in the report put midterm market notional volume above $546 million over two weeks.
Kelly Ye, head of research at digital asset management firm Talos, said in a note shared with Decrypt that Kalshi's odds of a Democratic sweep moved from about 74% to 99% as polls began closing at 6pm ET, and that prediction-market trading peaked between 8pm and 10pm ET.