Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated that the coming months could be critical due to reports of planned Russian provocations against Poland. Warsaw is preparing for various scenarios, with concerns particularly high in the Baltic states.
The potential for Russian provocations against a NATO member state raises concerns about the alliance's resolve and the escalation of the conflict in Eastern Europe, potentially impacting international support for Ukraine.
Poland is preparing for potential Russian military provocations, with Prime Minister Donald Tusk warning that the coming months could be "critical." These concerns are particularly acute in the Baltic states.
Reports from Polish media outlet Onet, citing anonymous sources, indicate that Moscow might be orchestrating a limited military provocation aimed at Poland. The intention, according to one source, is to escalate tensions and diminish support for Ukraine. The U.S. has reportedly alerted Warsaw to "new Russian plans for a conventional attack on NATO's eastern flank," with Poland not being excluded from these potential targets.
Western officials and intelligence agencies have recently voiced concerns about possible Russian operations in Poland or the Baltic countries, designed to test the cohesion of NATO. Tusk, while urging against fear, stressed the importance of preparation and acknowledging the threat.
Poland, situated between Russia's Kaliningrad exclave and Belarus, has previously responded to Russian aggression, notably by downing Russian drones that entered its airspace during an attack on Ukraine in September 2025.