Key facts
- NY Fed Research updated estimates of r-star and related variables.
- Estimates extend through Q1 2026.
- Updates use the Laubach-Williams (LW) and Holston-Laubach models.
The New York Fed Research has released updated estimates for r-star, the natural rate of interest, and associated variables. These projections now extend through the first quarter of 2026. The methodology employed for these updates relies on the established Laubach-Williams (LW) and Holston-Laubach models, which are commonly used in economic analysis to gauge long-term interest rate trends.