Key facts
- The 2026 FIFA World Cup is expected to drive $5-10 billion in consumer volume across prediction markets, according to Bernstein.
- Bernstein projects DraftKings could gain approximately 650,000 incremental funded Predictions accounts during the World Cup window.
- Robinhood's new CFTC-licensed exchange, Rothera, is expected to see prediction markets as its largest single driver of incremental revenue in 2026.
- Coinbase achieved over $100 million in annualized prediction markets revenue within two months of its product launch.
- Kalshi currently dominates the prediction market sector with a 57% market share, handling $17.9 billion in May.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup is poised to be a significant catalyst for the prediction markets sector, potentially driving between $5 billion and $10 billion in consumer volume, according to analysts at Bernstein. Prediction markets, where users trade contracts based on real-world event outcomes, saw substantial growth in 2024, particularly around political events.
Bernstein views the World Cup as a crucial test for prediction markets to prove their scalability beyond election cycles and establish themselves as a complementary offering to traditional sports betting. The expanded tournament format with 104 matches provides a larger inventory than previous events, landing during a historically slower period for sports betting.
Key players are expected to benefit significantly. DraftKings is highlighted for its prediction markets product, which offers a legal route into markets where traditional sportsbooks are restricted, particularly appealing to the U.S. Hispanic population. Robinhood is launching its CFTC-licensed exchange, Rothera, through a joint venture with Susquehanna, anticipating prediction markets to be a primary driver of incremental revenue. Coinbase has also seen rapid growth in its prediction markets offering, achieving over $100 million in annualized revenue within two months of launch.
In the broader market, Kalshi has solidified its position as the leading platform, capturing a 57% market share with $17.9 billion in volume in May, while Polymarket experienced a decline. Bernstein forecasts substantial future growth for the prediction market industry, projecting volumes to reach $1 trillion by 2030.