Key facts
- Barclays analysts estimated Musk would own about 37% of a combined SpaceX-Tesla but hold 56% of the voting power.
- Musk holds 85% voting control at SpaceX because his awards carry voting rights before the goals are met.
- Tesla's market capitalization is about $1.6 trillion and would need to reach $2 trillion in a merger for Musk to receive any stock awards.
- Meeting the $2 trillion goal would issue Musk $20 billion in Tesla shares at that valuation, before adjusting for stock growth since September 2025.
- Equilar estimated the SpaceX plan shares would be worth $719 billion at the highest market cap target.
- Musk, Tesla and SpaceX did not respond to requests for comment.
Elon Musk said on a SpaceX earnings call in October 2026 that both companies' boards had formed special committees to discuss a potential merger, Reuters reported on November 3, 2026. A deal could give him the voting control at Tesla that he has said he wants without his meeting the milestones in his pay plans, according to a Reuters review of the plans and interviews with six executive-compensation experts.
SpaceX's board granted Musk stock awards tied to market-cap goals, a Mars colony of a million people and space data centers capable of delivering 100 terawatts of compute per year ahead of the company's IPO in summer 2026. Musk immediately received the voting power associated with those shares, though not the economic rights, giving him 85% control over SpaceX without meeting any goal. The shares would be worth $719 billion at the highest market cap target, based on SpaceX's current shares outstanding, according to research firm Equilar.
Tesla's $1 trillion pay package, approved by shareholders in 2025, works the other way: Musk collects stock only as he meets market-cap and operational goals. He has not yet achieved any targets, and even hitting all of them would give him only about 29% of Tesla's voting power, according to documents the board presented in 2025. Tesla's market capitalization is about $1.6 trillion and would need to reach $2 trillion in connection with a merger for Musk to receive any stock awards, which would issue him $20 billion in shares at that valuation.
Barclays analysts estimated in a recent investor note that if SpaceX acquired Tesla at current sizes, Musk would own about 37% of the combined company but hold 56% of the voting power, because many of his SpaceX shares carry 10 times the voting rights of typical shares. Tesla has no such share class.
Charles Elson, founding director of the Weinberg Center for Corporate Governance at the University of Delaware, said of the pay goals: "It's irrelevant. This package is a distraction from the real story, which is complete control." Matthew Bloomfield, an associate professor of accounting at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, said he viewed the SpaceX plan as "just a marketing document." Kevin Murphy, a finance professor at USC's Marshall School of Business, said the board and Musk are likely to keep the plans in place and could adjust goals and share awards for the larger combined company. Musk, Tesla and SpaceX did not respond to requests for comment.