Key facts
- Mexico's finance ministry projects 1.5%-2.5% economic growth in 2027.
- The public sector deficit is forecast to narrow to 3.9% of GDP in 2027.
- Total public debt is expected to reach 55.0% of GDP in 2027.
- Headline inflation is projected to be 3.0% by the end of 2027.
- State oil firm Pemex will receive 81.1 billion pesos for debt repayment in 2027.
Mexico's finance ministry has submitted a draft budget proposal to Congress, forecasting economic growth between 1.5% and 2.5% for 2027. The proposal also anticipates a narrowing of the public sector deficit to 3.9% of GDP in 2027, down from a projected 4.1% for 2026.
The 2027 economic outlook is primarily attributed to robust domestic demand, increased household incomes, more favorable financial conditions, and investments linked to infrastructure projects and tax incentives under the 'Plan Mexico' initiative. Export growth, supported by North American trade integration, is also expected to contribute.
Total public debt, measured by the Historical Balance of Public Sector Borrowing Requirements, is projected to reach 55.0% of GDP in 2027, a slight increase from an estimated 54.0% for year-end 2026. Headline inflation is forecast to conclude 2027 at 3.0%, aligning with the Bank of Mexico's target.
State-owned oil company Pemex is allocated 81.1 billion Mexican pesos ($4.80 billion) from the federal government for debt repayment in 2027, a decrease from 263.5 billion pesos in the prior budget. Additionally, 255.5 billion pesos are earmarked for Pemex's priority investment projects.
The macroeconomic framework assumes Mexico's crude export mix will average $61.80 per barrel in 2027, down from an estimated $78.40 per barrel in 2026. Total liquid hydrocarbon production is projected at 1.80 million barrels per day.