Key facts
- Mexico's Finance Minister Edgar Amador expects the economy to outperform IMF projections.
- The IMF recently lowered its 2026 GDP forecast for Mexico to 1.2% and its 2027 forecast to 1.9%.
- Amador attributed the IMF's revision to global economic factors, not domestic issues.
- Vanguard forecasts Mexico's economy to improve significantly in 2027, boosted by U.S. growth and AI investment.
- The Bank of Mexico recently cut its policy rate to 6.5%, with expectations of no further cuts in the near term.
Mexico's Finance Minister Edgar Amador stated on Wednesday that he anticipates the country's economy will perform better than the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) latest projections. The IMF recently reduced its forecast for Mexico's GDP to 1.2% for 2026 and 1.9% for 2027, down from previous estimates of 1.6% and 2.2%, respectively. Amador clarified that these revisions were due to global economic factors, such as tensions in the Persian Gulf impacting energy markets, rather than domestic issues. He also suggested that the IMF's initial estimates for Mexico's economy in 2025 were overly pessimistic.
Separately, Vanguard's economic outlook indicates that Mexico's economy is expected to improve considerably in 2027, driven by strong U.S. economic growth fueled by AI-related investment and increased manufacturing exports. Vanguard has revised its 2026 unemployment forecast for Mexico lower, citing a resilient labor market. While acknowledging uneven inflationary pressures, Vanguard anticipates a gradual decline, though higher energy prices remain a risk. The Bank of Mexico recently lowered its policy rate by 25 basis points to 6.5% in May, and Vanguard expects this rate to be held steady as inflation converges to the target.