Key facts
- Analysts raised the 2026 headline inflation median forecast to 3.88% from 3.87% and the 2027 forecast to 3.85% from 3.82%.
- The 2026 GDP growth median forecast rose to 1.50% from 1.40%, and the 2027 forecast to 1.83% from 1.80%.
- The core inflation median forecast for 2026 was cut to 3.82% from 3.90%, while the 2027 forecast rose to 3.82% from 3.78%.
- Analysts raised the end-2026 peso-dollar rate forecast to 18.39 from 17.50 and the end-2027 forecast to 18.64 from 18.04.
- The interbank lending rate median forecast was unchanged at 6.50% for 2026 and 2027, with the benchmark rate at 6.50%.
Private-sector analysts polled by Mexico's central bank raised their median forecasts for headline inflation and economic growth for both 2026 and 2027, the bank said in a survey released on November 3, 2026. The survey of 40 analysts was conducted between October 19 and October 29, and the published figures are medians.
Headline inflation is now expected to end 2026 at 3.88%, up from the prior month's estimate of 3.87%, and to close 2027 at 3.85%, compared with 3.82% previously. The core inflation median forecast was cut to 3.82% for 2026 from 3.90%, and raised to 3.82% for 2027 from 3.78%.
Gross domestic product is now expected to grow 1.50% in 2026, up from 1.40%, and 1.83% in 2027, compared with 1.80%. Analysts raised their end-2026 peso-dollar rate forecast to 18.39 from 17.50 and their end-2027 forecast to 18.64 from 18.04.
The analysts do not expect the central bank to make further changes to its benchmark interest rate, currently at 6.50%, through the end of 2027. Their median forecast for the interbank lending rate was unchanged at 6.50% for both years.