Key facts
- Mali is experiencing its most serious security crisis in years.
- JNIM jihadis and FLA separatists have formed an alliance to intensify attacks.
- Fatalities from militant attacks increased by 35% in the first seven months of 2024 compared to the same period in 2024.
- The allied groups have launched large-scale simultaneous attacks and ambushed military convoys.
- The FLA seeks independence for northern Mali, while JNIM is an al-Qaida affiliate operating across the Sahel.
- The Islamic State Sahel Province (ISSP) is also active in Mali, with different goals than JNIM.
Mali is grappling with an escalating security crisis, marked by an unprecedented alliance between the al-Qaida-affiliated Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and the separatist Azawad Liberation Front (FLA). This partnership has led to some of the largest coordinated attacks against Malian security forces and their partners, including Russia's Africa Corps, in years. Analysts note that this collaboration acts as a force multiplier for both groups, who share the common goal of targeting the Malian armed forces.
Fatalities from militant attacks have surged by 35% in the first seven months of 2024, reaching 3,435 compared to 2,546 in the same period of the previous year, according to data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED). The FLA spokesperson, Mohamed Elmaouloud Ramadane, described the relationship as a tactical coordination focused on military operations, with an agreement to decide on the application of Sharia law after securing independence for northern Mali.
The current phase of the conflict began in 2012 with a Tuareg rebellion, which subsequently allowed jihadis to gain a foothold. The Sahel region, a vast semi-arid strip across Africa, is now considered the world's most terrorized, accounting for a significant portion of global terror-related deaths. Military rule, established after a 2020 coup, has seen armed groups expand their influence despite the security crisis being cited as justification for the takeover.
JNIM, led by Iyad Ag Ghaly, is a prominent al-Qaida affiliate in the Sahel, formed in 2017 through the merger of four groups. Its objectives include expelling French forces and establishing de facto authority in areas with limited state presence. The group also operates in neighboring Niger and Burkina Faso and is expanding into coastal West Africa.
The FLA, formed in 2024, is the latest iteration of Tuareg separatist movements seeking independence for northern Mali, a region historically feeling marginalized. Renewed hostilities flared after the Malian junta exited peace accords signed in 2015.
Another group, the Islamic State Sahel Province (ISSP), is less prominent than JNIM in Mali but operates in the Menaka region. Unlike JNIM, the ISSP aims to establish an Islamic caliphate and employs more coercive tactics with civilians.