Key facts
- Brazilian and Guyanese crude grades are outperforming West African crudes in Europe and China.
- Combined exports of Brazilian and Guyanese crude have risen by roughly 500,000 b/d to 3.28 million b/d.
- Chinese refiners significantly cut buying of Brazilian crude for August and September.
- European imports of Latin American crude have increased, while West African imports have decreased.
- West African crude is increasingly being forced to trade more promptly.
Brazilian and Guyanese crude grades are increasingly outperforming West African crudes in key markets like Europe and China, potentially shifting West African supply to an arbitrage role rather than a base-load one. This trend is driven by rising Latin American production, which has increased combined exports by approximately 500,000 barrels per day since 2025 to 3.28 million b/d.
The increased output has pressured Latin American crude prices, with Brazilian grades facing particular weakness due to subdued demand from China. Chinese refiners cut their August and September purchases of Brazilian crude by over a third, prompting sellers to seek buyers in Europe. This competition means that Latin American crude, often cheaper, is displacing established West African grades.
For instance, medium sweet Buzios crude has averaged $5.50/bbl cheaper than Nigerian Forcados on a delivered-northwest Europe basis over the past year. While Nigerian crude offers better gross product worth due to higher diesel yields, refiners are often choosing lower feedstock costs. European imports of Brazilian and Guyanese crude have risen by 135,000 b/d to about 1 million b/d, while West African imports have fallen by around 115,000 b/d.
This shift is forcing West African crude to trade more promptly, with unsold cargoes accumulating as producers release new loading programs. Angolan and Congolese crudes, primarily destined for China, are also trading more promptly. Chinese buyers use delivered Brazilian prices as a reference for West African fob levels, highlighting the strong link between the two in that market.