Key facts
- Kazakhstan expects Russian gas deliveries to rise to 11 bcm in 2026, from about 4 bcm in 2025.
- Talks are underway for up to 9 bcm of Russian gas purchases in 2027.
- Kazakhstan's domestic gas production reached a record 68.1 bcm in 2025.
- Uzbekistan's domestic gas production fell to 18.3 bcm in H1 2026 from 21.9 bcm in H1 2025.
- Uzbek gas exports generated $629 million in 2025, while Russian imports were valued at $1.66 billion.
- A US sanctions bill passed by Congress on September 16 could impose punitive tariffs on nations purchasing Russian energy.
Kazakhstan is set to significantly increase its natural gas imports from Russia, agreeing to purchase 11 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2026 under a supplementary deal with Gazprom, up from approximately 4 bcm in 2025. Discussions are also ongoing for potential purchases of up to 9 bcm in 2027. This move comes as Kazakhstan faces surging domestic demand, despite achieving a record domestic production of 68.1 bcm in 2025.
While the price of the Russian gas is expected to be low, potentially offering Kazakhstan a cost-effective way to meet its growing needs and maintain export revenues, the overall cost could be impacted by new US sanctions. The legislation, passed by the US Congress on September 16 and likely to be signed by President Donald Trump, aims to impose punitive tariffs on nations purchasing Russian energy and could expose entities in Central Asian states to secondary sanctions.
Uzbekistan is facing a similar situation, with declining domestic gas production accelerating rapidly. The country extracted 18.3 bcm in the first half of 2026, down from 21.9 bcm in the same period last year. Uzbekistan appears to be adopting a strategy of importing Russian gas at low prices to cover domestic demand while continuing to export its own gas, which generated $629 million in revenue in 2025, compared to $1.66 billion for its Russian imports.