Kazakhstan's wheat production is forecast to decrease in the 2025-26 marketing year due to farmers shifting to more profitable oilseeds, particularly sunflowers. Despite a slight dip from the previous year's record, exports are expected to remain strong.
This forecast indicates a shift in Kazakhstan's agricultural focus towards oilseeds, potentially impacting global wheat supply dynamics and export markets. The continued reliance on government subsidies for exports also highlights ongoing support for the sector.
Kazakhstan's wheat production for the 2025-26 marketing year is anticipated to decrease from the previous year's record, primarily due to farmers shifting to more profitable oilseed crops like sunflowers and rapeseed. The U.S. Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecasts production at 18 million tonnes, a slight reduction from the 2024-25 season. This figure is lower than the Kazakhstan Bureau of National Statistics' projection, which FAS analysts consider overstated.
Despite the anticipated drop in overall production, favorable weather conditions during the growing and harvesting periods have led to improved yields, partially mitigating the impact of reduced wheat plantings. Consequently, projected wheat exports have been revised upward to 10 million tonnes. Exporters are also focused on diversifying their markets and continuing to leverage government transportation subsidies.
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