Key facts
- Japan's total births in the first half of 2026 increased by 0.8% compared to the same period in 2025.
- This is the first time in 11 years that Japan has seen a rise in births for the first half of the year.
- The increase in marriages is considered a contributing factor to the rise in births.
- In 2025, Japan's birth count reached a record low of 671,236, a 2.2% decrease from the previous year.
- Tokyo's total fertility rate dropped to 0.96 in 2025, marking the first time a prefecture fell below 1.0.
Japan has experienced a notable increase in births during the first half of 2026, a trend not seen in 11 years, according to preliminary data from the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare. This uptick, representing a 0.8% rise compared to the same period in 2025, is partly attributed to a second consecutive annual increase in marriages.
However, this positive development contrasts with the overall trend in 2025, which saw a record low birth count of 671,236, a 2.2% decrease from the previous year. The total fertility rate also hit a historic low of 1.14 in 2025. Projections from the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS) indicated that the birth level for 2040 was nearly reached in 2025, signifying a significant acceleration in the decline.
Despite the overall decline in 2025, Tokyo recorded a 1.3% increase in births, its first gain in nine years, though its total fertility rate fell below 1.0 for the first time. Marriages in 2025 saw a modest rise, with figures differing slightly between sources, but indicating a general upward trend following pandemic-related postponements. The natural decrease in population, the gap between births and deaths, widened in 2025 to a record 899,845.
Government officials acknowledge the persistent challenge of reversing the declining birth rate, with plans to focus on economic growth, income increases for younger generations, and stable employment to alleviate anxieties about raising children.