Key facts
- Israel's Defense Minister Israel Katz stated the country could attack Iran a third time if necessary.
- Two contradictory US-brokered deals have been made concerning Iran and Lebanon.
- A framework deal between Lebanon, Israel, and the US allows indefinite Israeli troop presence in southern Lebanon.
- The framework deal requires the Lebanese army to disarm a local group and grants immunity to Israeli troops for alleged war crimes.
- Lebanese parliamentary speaker Nabih Berri opposes the framework deal, warning it could lead to civil strife.
- Israeli politicians increasingly view Turkey as an existential enemy and part of a new 'Sunni axis' with Syria and Qatar.
Two conflicting US-brokered deals have emerged in the Middle East, creating a complex diplomatic landscape. One agreement between the US and Iran aims for a permanent cessation of military operations on all fronts. Concurrently, a separate framework deal involving Lebanon, Israel, and the US has been proposed, granting Israeli forces indefinite presence in southern Lebanon and requiring the disarmament of a local group by the Lebanese army. This second deal has faced strong opposition from Lebanese parliamentary speaker Nabih Berri, who warns of potential civil strife and vows to block its passage, citing concerns over granting immunity to Israeli troops for alleged war crimes.
The divergent US approaches are reportedly influenced by internal administration dynamics, with Vice President JD Vance's strategy favoring de-escalation with Iran and Secretary of State Marco Rubio's approach prioritizing Israeli regional influence and the disarmament of Hezbollah. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has welcomed the Lebanon deal as a significant blow to Iran's regional influence.
Amid these developments, Israel's strategic focus appears to be shifting towards Turkey, with several Israeli politicians increasingly labeling it an existential threat and a key component of a new 'Sunni axis' that includes Syria and Qatar. This rhetoric has prompted a defense of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan from US President Donald Trump. Israeli politicians Naftali Bennett and Amichai Chikli have amplified concerns about Turkey's regional role, with Chikli identifying a new 'Muslim Brotherhood axis.' The article also notes that following the fall of Bashar al-Assad, Israel has reportedly invaded southern Syria and is advocating for its fragmentation.