Key facts
- Iran is shifting tactics to increase attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
- The new strategy aims to keep oil prices high and influence the US midterm elections.
- Iran's IRGC is using unarmed spotters in small boats to identify targets.
- Attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz have surged recently.
- Iran plans to expand its operational area to the Gulf of Oman and beyond.
Iran is escalating its tactics to target shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, with the stated aims of keeping oil prices high and influencing the upcoming US midterm elections, according to two senior Iranian officials speaking to Reuters.
Tehran has sought to control passage through the vital waterway, which previously carried about a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas trade, as leverage against Washington. The officials indicated that Iran began employing different offensive tactics against vessels deemed in violation of its restrictions approximately 10 days ago, leading to an increased tempo of attacks.
A US military official confirmed a change in tactics, noting that Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has started using unarmed spotters in small boats to identify potential targets, including US naval vessels, after its radar capabilities were degraded. In one instance last week, US forces destroyed an Iranian dhow being used for spotting after confronting its occupants.
The officials stated that the strategy includes changes in the type and pace of attacks, with a primary goal of frustrating US efforts to lower global oil prices. The decision was reportedly made at the highest levels of Iran's leadership and is fully coordinated. One official described the situation as a "game of chess," vowing that Iran would prevent oil prices from falling before the November elections and that vessels would not be safe even outside the Strait of Hormuz.
Recent data indicates a surge in attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, reaching their highest level since the conflict began. There have been at least five incidents involving tankers and other commercial ships in the Hormuz area in the past 48 hours, including drone strikes, according to maritime security sources and reports to the UKMTO. This tempo increase suggests a deliberate escalation, according to one maritime security source.
As part of the new strategy, Iran intends to expand the geographical scope of its operations beyond the Strait of Hormuz into the Gulf of Oman and further afield. Analysis suggests this may already be occurring, with reports of Iran targeting ships off the coasts of Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.
Both Iranian officials expressed confidence that Tehran is moving towards a complete closure of the strait for any vessel violating its restrictions. The US Navy-led Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) recently assessed the threat to merchant shipping in the Strait of Hormuz as "severe," the second-highest level, citing continued IRGC activity including UAV overflights and targeted surveillance.