Key facts
- Indonesia's government is using nationalist rhetoric against neighbors to deflect criticism over domestic issues.
- Singapore has been a target of sharpened rhetoric from Jakarta, including warnings to pilgrims and trimmed gas supply.
- President Prabowo's popularity has fallen to 44.5% from 81.2% late last year.
- A threat of downgrade from MSCI has sent Indonesia's markets into turmoil.
- Analysts believe Jakarta's nationalistic rhetoric will likely persist as long as Indonesia's domestic problems remain.
Indonesia's government is employing nationalist rhetoric against its neighbors, particularly Singapore, as a strategy to deflect domestic criticism regarding its handling of welfare programs, market regulations, and persistent wildfires that have caused regional haze. Indonesian officials have issued warnings to pilgrims to avoid transiting through Singapore and have reduced gas supply, with the energy minister stating that "so-called brothers and sisters" should not lecture Indonesia on honoring contracts. Singapore has attempted to downplay the dispute, with its foreign minister visiting Indonesia to meet President Prabowo Subianto, but has also summoned representatives of companies suspected of having fires on their plantations in Indonesia. Analysts suggest that this nationalistic tone, which intensified after Singapore and Malaysia complained about the haze, is likely to continue as long as Indonesia faces internal challenges, including a threat of downgrade from MSCI that has caused market turmoil.