Key facts
- An analysis of government forecasts indicates that expanding Heathrow Airport would result in job losses in other UK regions.
- The West Midlands region could lose nearly 10,000 jobs, with Birmingham Airport projected to lose 7.5 million passengers annually by 2050.
- The New Economics Foundation (NEF) estimates that by 2050, Heathrow expansion could lead to 15,200 aviation jobs and 6,400 jobs at other London/south-east airports being displaced.
- Government modelling suggests the overall GDP impact of the expansion could be as low as 0.05% per year.
- The government disputes these findings, stating that expansion would create over 60,000 local jobs and that 40% of the £2.6bn economic boost would be outside London and the south-east.
- The planned third runway would cost an estimated £33bn and increase annual flights from 480,000 to 756,000.
An analysis of government forecasts suggests that expanding Heathrow Airport would lead to significant job losses in other regions of the UK, potentially costing the West Midlands nearly 10,000 jobs alone. The economic paper, published by the Department for Transport, indicates that airports in England and Wales could lose millions of passengers if Heathrow builds a third runway, impacting regional employment.
The New Economics Foundation (NEF) stated that the jobs created at Heathrow would largely represent those displaced from elsewhere. Their analysis of Department for Transport (DfT) modelling suggests that by 2050, 15,200 aviation jobs and 6,400 jobs at other London and south-east airports could be shifted to Heathrow. This finding could undermine political support for the expansion, especially given Prime Minister Andy Burnham's focus on rebalancing infrastructure spending away from the south of England.
While former chancellor Rachel Reeves had supported the expansion for economic growth, the impact report suggests the overall GDP boost could be minimal, up to 0.05% annually. A peer review of the DfT's GDP analysis also questioned claims of broad distribution of gains to the regions. Alex Chapman, head of economic policy at the NEF, criticized the plan as moving jobs and investment to London and the south-east, questioning its continuation given the evaporated GDP case and significant environmental damages.
The government, however, maintains that the NEF analysis is misleading and does not factor in the potential for over 60,000 local jobs created by the expansion. They assert that benefits will be felt nationwide, with up to 40% of the £2.6 billion economic boost expected outside London and the south-east. Heathrow's chief executive, Thomas Woldbye, added that economic models do not capture all benefits, such as £150 billion in trade and private investment in UK supply chains.
The current plan involves constructing a 3,500-meter runway over the M25 motorway at an estimated cost of £33 billion, increasing annual flights from 480,000 to 756,000. Ministers aim to open the runway by 2035. The expansion has faced opposition, including from Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband.