Key facts
- Gasoline prices have been falling for six consecutive weeks.
- The projected national average gasoline price for July 4 is $3.75 per gallon.
Gasoline prices have dropped for six consecutive weeks, but the national average is projected to be around $3.75 per gallon for the July 4 holiday, the second-highest on record. This is due to lingering uncertainty in the Middle East and retail prices lagging wholesale market declines.
Consumers will experience the second-highest gasoline prices on record for the July 4 holiday weekend, impacting travel plans and budgets despite a recent downward trend in prices.
Gasoline prices are declining for the sixth consecutive week, but consumers will still face high costs for their July 4 holiday fill-ups. GasBuddy forecasts the national average price to be approximately $3.75 per gallon, marking the second-highest price on record for the holiday, surpassed only by the $4.80 average in 2022.
This price is about 65 cents higher than last year's Independence Day and nearly a dollar above the start of the year. The decline in gasoline prices largely mirrors the trend in crude oil markets, with Brent crude recovering to around $75 per barrel after briefly dipping below $72. This recovery is attributed to the return of supply from the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia restarting operations at its Ras Tanura terminal and increased exports from Iraq.
Despite improvements in shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, it remains below pre-war levels. Lingering uncertainty, including concerns over Iran's proposed traffic management system and recent incidents involving commercial vessels near Oman, contributes to gasoline prices not falling as rapidly as crude oil. Additionally, retail prices typically lag behind wholesale market movements.
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