Key facts
- G10 central banks have delivered 350 basis points of tightening through 14 hikes in 2026, with none cutting rates.
- Six G10 central banks raised rates by a combined 150 basis points in September, the biggest monthly push since June 2023.
- The Philippines and India raised rates by a combined 75 basis points in October, according to a Reuters sample of 18 developing economies.
- Turkey cut rates by 100 basis points in October, resuming easing after an eight-month pause.
- Emerging market central banks in the Reuters sample have delivered 675 basis points of tightening through 16 hikes and 850 basis points of easing through 25 cuts in 2026.
- BNP Paribas economist Anis Bensaidani said the October pause does not mark the end of the tightening cycle.
Central banks overseeing the 10 most heavily traded currencies largely stopped raising rates in October, after six of them delivered a combined 150 basis points of increases in September, the largest monthly tightening push since June 2023, Reuters reported on November 4.
The Bank of Canada was the only one of the 10 to raise rates in October. The US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and New Zealand's central bank held steady, while Switzerland, Australia, Sweden, Norway and Britain had no rate-setting meetings scheduled that month.
Through 2026, G10 central banks have delivered 350 basis points of tightening across 14 hikes, with none cutting rates. "The Fed, the ECB, and the BoJ left their rates unchanged," said Anis Bensaidani, an economist covering the United States and Japan at BNP Paribas. "This pause, however, does not mark the end of the cycle."
The October pause came as Brent crude futures posted double-digit percentage gains in both September and October, raising the prospect of renewed inflation pressures, Reuters reported. "Policy is tight, but probably not tight enough yet," said Ryan Sweet, chief global economist at Oxford Economics, pointing to central banks hinting that more rate hikes were to come. "The degree of future tightening will mostly hinge on the path of inflation, but lingering questions are whether monetary policy is restrictive and how much additional tightening will be sufficient to return inflation to target."
In a Reuters sample of 18 developing economies, the Philippines and India raised rates by a combined 75 basis points in October. Another 10 central banks that held meetings kept benchmark rates unchanged, while Turkey resumed its easing cycle after an eight-month break with a 100 basis point cut. Year to date, central banks in the emerging market sample have delivered 675 basis points of tightening through 16 hikes and 850 basis points of easing through 25 cuts.