Key facts
- Only 11% of Europeans surveyed across 15 countries now see the US as an ally, a historic low.
- Confidence in US security guarantees has declined significantly, influenced by President Trump's foreign policy.
- Europeans increasingly support higher defense spending and greater strategic autonomy.
- Most respondents believe US-European relations will improve once President Donald Trump leaves office.
- Majorities across surveyed countries favored prioritizing European renewable energy over resuming Russian oil and gas purchases.
A survey by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) indicates a significant decline in European confidence in the United States as an ally and security guarantor, with only 11% of respondents across 15 countries now viewing the US as an ally. This represents a historic low, down from 16% six months prior and 22% in November 2024. The findings suggest a growing belief among Europeans that they cannot depend on the United States for their security and must take greater responsibility for their own defense. Roughly half of respondents described the United States as a "necessary partner" rather than an ally.
Europeans are increasingly advocating for greater self-reliance in defense, with a notable rise in support for increased national defense spending and collective EU initiatives for defense financing. Respondents were, on average, 4 percentage points more likely to support increased national defense spending than a year ago. However, there is limited support for replacing NATO with a European alternative, with only 29% of respondents saying such a move would be a good idea. Despite the sharp decline, respondents indicated they do not view the deterioration in transatlantic relations as permanent, expecting ties with Washington to improve after President Donald Trump's presidency.
The survey, conducted in May among 19,481 respondents, also found that while Europeans continue to support Ukraine, they are less enthusiastic about further EU eastward expansion and remain reluctant to send their own troops to post-war Ukraine. Majorities across the countries surveyed favored prioritizing European renewable energy over resuming purchases of Russian oil and gas. The decline in confidence was evident across most countries, with supporters of only two right-populist political parties — Poland's Law and Justice (PiS) and Reform UK — continuing to view the U.S. as an ally.