Key facts
- The Netherlands faces increasing risks of electricity shortages by 2030.
- Grid operator TenneT stated that expected shortage hours could exceed the Dutch reliability standard.
- Rising electricity demand from electrification and declining fossil fuel generation are key drivers.
- TenneT recommended implementing a capacity mechanism for backup power.
- Reliance on electricity imports during shortage periods is projected to rise significantly.
The Netherlands faces a significant risk of electricity shortages by 2030, according to a report by grid operator TenneT Holding BV for the Economy and Climate Ministry. The report indicates that soaring demand from electrification, coupled with the decline of fossil fuel power plants, will outpace the growth of renewable sources like solar and wind, as well as battery storage.
TenneT projects that expected shortage hours could rise to between 37 and 46 per year by 2035, substantially exceeding the Dutch reliability standard of a maximum average of four hours annually. This deterioration is primarily driven by increased electricity demand and a reduction in flexible power capacity, both domestically and in neighboring countries.
To address these risks, TenneT has advised the economy ministry to implement a capacity mechanism, a scheme designed to pay for backup power providers or facilitate demand reductions during tight supply periods, starting from the winter of 2029-2030. The grid operator also noted that the Netherlands' reliance on electricity imports during shortage periods could increase from approximately 1 gigawatt in 2028 to nearly 9 gigawatts by 2035.