Key facts
- The UN said last month the best achievable outcome is 1.8 degrees of warming even with immediate deep emissions cuts.
- European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told COP31 leaders the world is on course to overshoot 1.5 degrees.
- Marshall Islands President Hilda Heine told leaders the fight for 1.5C is not over.
- UN Secretary-General António Guterres said developed countries cannot expand fossil fuel output while claiming 1.5 degree commitment.
- Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley said cutting methane nearly in half by 2030 could avoid almost 0.3 degrees of warming by the 2040s.
- The United States has withdrawn from the Paris Agreement and is no longer part of COP talks, the report said.
Leaders at the COP31 climate summit in Antalya, Turkey, are pressing to keep the 1.5C warming target at the center of global climate ambitions, the first such talks since the United Nations said global warming would soon exceed that level. The UN said last month that even if countries sharply cut emissions starting immediately, the best outcome would be 1.8 degrees of warming, with a theoretical chance of returning to 1.5 degrees later only with vast amounts of unproven carbon removal technology.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told fellow leaders on Wednesday that the world is on course to overshoot 1.5 degrees and that every fraction of a degree matters. Marshall Islands President Hilda Heine said the fight for 1.5C is not over, and Danish Climate Minister Samira Nawa told POLITICO before the talks that keeping the target at the heart of climate ambitions was her country's priority.
Johan Rockström, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, said he does not support the political messaging of keeping 1.5C alive but does not want to lose the target, warning that dropping it could lead governments to aim for 2 degrees instead. One European climate negotiator warned that highlighting alternatives such as 1.8 degrees would be a slippery slope.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres told leaders on Wednesday that developed countries cannot keep expanding fossil fuel production while claiming commitment to 1.5 degrees. The report said Australia, a COP31 co-host, is expanding coal and natural gas investments, and that the UK climate department approved a major North Sea natural gas project a day after Climate Minister Katie White said COP31 was the place to double down on action. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who said the risks and costs grow with every missed Paris target, had two days earlier celebrated the discovery of two new oil fields.