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Bank of Japan likely to hike rates in September, aide projects

Created at 7 Sep · 4:28 AM1 source↑ Market-relevant
IN SHORT

An economic adviser to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi projected that the Bank of Japan will likely raise interest rates in September and continue quarterly hikes until January next year. This projection comes as markets anticipate a 25 basis point hike at the upcoming policy meeting.

Key Numbers

25 basis pointsexpected policy rate increase
1.25%projected policy rate after hike
September 17 and 18BOJ policy meeting dates
once every six monthsprojected hike pace after January

Who's Involved

Takuji Aida
economic adviser to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and chief Japan economist at Credit Agricole
Sanae Takaichi
Prime Minister of Japan
Kazuo Ueda
Governor of the Bank of Japan
Scott Bessent
U.S. Treasury Secretary
Satsuki Katayama
Finance Minister

↳ Why This Matters

The projected rate hikes by the Bank of Japan could influence currency markets, particularly the yen's value against the dollar, and impact the broader Japanese economy. This signals a potential shift in monetary policy aimed at combating inflation and currency depreciation.

Key facts

  • An economic adviser to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi projected the Bank of Japan will likely raise interest rates in September.
  • The adviser, Takuji Aida, suggested a pace of quarterly hikes until January next year.
  • Markets have priced in a 25 basis point hike at the BOJ's upcoming policy meeting.
  • BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled a strong possibility of a September rate hike due to inflationary risks.

TOKYO, Sept 7 (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan is likely to raise interest rates in September and continue quarterly hikes until January next year, according to Takuji Aida, an economic adviser to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. Aida, known for his opposition to rate hikes, is now forecasting an accelerated pace, seeing a narrow window for an increase before an early October parliamentary session.

Following the September hike, Aida anticipates another increase by January, after which the BOJ would revert to hikes approximately every six months. He cautioned that such a premature, accelerated pace could negatively impact the economy.

These remarks suggest a growing consensus within Prime Minister Takaichi's administration regarding the necessity of further BOJ rate increases to help curb the yen's depreciation. Markets have largely priced in a 25 basis point hike to 1.25% at the BOJ's upcoming policy meeting on September 17-18.

Prospects for a September rate hike were bolstered by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's recent calls for decisive monetary action to combat yen weakness. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda also signaled a strong possibility of a September hike, emphasizing the need to assess escalating inflationary risks.

Frequently asked questions

Takuji Aida is an economic adviser to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and the chief Japan economist at Credit Agricole. He is known as a reflationist and has previously opposed Bank of Japan rate hikes.

Aida projects a rate hike in September, followed by quarterly increases until January next year, and then approximately one hike every six months.

Markets have nearly fully priced in a 25 basis point increase in the policy rate at the Bank of Japan's upcoming meeting on September 17-18.

The potential hikes are aimed at combating inflation and arresting unwelcome yen falls, with Governor Kazuo Ueda focusing on whether inflationary risks are heightening.

What Happens Next

01The Bank of Japan will hold its next policy meeting on September 17-18.
02Parliament will debate legislation for Prime Minister Takaichi's plan to suspend an 8% levy on food items.
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How It Developed

Takuji Aida, an economic adviser to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, projected the Bank of Japan will likely raise interest rates in September.
Aida suggested a pace of quarterly hikes until January next year, followed by hikes every six months.
He noted that accelerated rate hikes could weigh on the economy.
The remarks suggest a broadening consensus within the administration for further BOJ rate hikes to combat yen falls.
Markets have nearly fully priced in a 25 basis point policy rate increase to 1.25% at the BOJ's September 17-18 meeting.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent previously called for higher BOJ rates to combat yen weakness.
BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated a strong chance of a hike in September, focusing on inflationary risks.

Sources

T1
Takaichi's reflationist aide projects Bank of Japan rate hike in SeptemberReuters

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