Key facts
- Aurora aims to have over 30,000 self-driving trucks generating $5 billion in annual revenue by 2030.
- The company expects to have 200 driverless trucks and an $80 million revenue run rate by the end of 2026.
- CFO David Maday stated the 2030 target is achievable, noting the overall truck market produces 250,000 to 300,000 new trucks annually.
- Aurora plans to transition to a driver-as-a-service model in 2027, where customers buy the trucks and pay Aurora a per-mile subscription fee.
- The company anticipates reaching breakeven gross margins in the first half of 2027 with approximately 500 trucks.
- Aurora's third-generation hardware, produced by partner Aumovio, is expected by the end of 2027.
Autonomous vehicle technology company Aurora has outlined an ambitious plan to have over 30,000 self-driving trucks on the road generating $5 billion in annual revenue by the end of 2030. This target is considered audacious given the company expects to finish 2026 with only 200 driverless trucks and an $80 million revenue run rate.
CFO David Maday expressed confidence in achieving the goal, stating that 30,000 trucks represent a small fraction of the overall market, with major manufacturers producing between 250,000 and 300,000 new trucks annually. Investors have shown skepticism, with Aurora's shares declining since its September 23 investor day, closing down 12.42% on Monday to $5.29.
The company anticipates a significant scaling up starting in 2027, projecting a jump from 200 driverless trucks at the end of 2026 to over 1,000 a year later. Aurora currently operates a transportation-as-a-service model, charging customers like Detmar Logistics, Hirschbach, McLane, and Werner about $2 per mile. This model is intended as a proof-of-concept and will be limited to approximately 500 trucks.
Starting next year, Aurora plans to shift to a driver-as-a-service model. Under this new structure, customers will purchase the self-driving trucks, paying Aurora a per-mile subscription fee of about $0.85 for the autonomous technology. Aurora will maintain the self-driving system and hardware, while customers handle truck ownership and maintenance. This move is seen as critical for scaling operations and reducing Aurora's financial burden.
The company expects to reach breakeven gross margins in the first half of 2027 with around 500 trucks. By the end of 2027, Aurora plans to introduce its third-generation hardware, produced and financed by its partner Aumovio. Aurora also intends to expand its operations across the continental U.S. by 2030 and eventually enter the robotaxi market.