Key facts
- AARP projects a 3.6% Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for 2027.
- This projection is based on August Consumer Price Index figures.
- A 3.6% COLA would increase the average monthly benefit by about $75.
- The Senior Citizens League projects a 3.5% COLA for 2027.
- The official 2027 COLA will be announced on October 14.
- Inflation rose 3.4% year-over-year in August.
The AARP is projecting a 3.6% cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for Social Security recipients in 2027, based on current inflation data. This estimate, released on September 11, 2026, is slightly higher than the group's previous forecast of 3.5% and reflects stubbornly high inflation in August. If this projection holds, it would represent the largest annual adjustment to Social Security payments since 2023.
Other organizations, such as the Senior Citizens League, are forecasting a slightly lower COLA of 3.5%, down from their prior estimate of 3.6%. The COLA is calculated based on changes in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) during the third quarter of the year (July, August, and September) compared to the same period in the previous year.
The average retired worker received $2,071 per month in Social Security benefits as of January. A 3.6% COLA would translate to an increase of approximately $75 per month, raising the average benefit to about $2,146. However, some critics argue that the COLA does not adequately offset the rising costs faced by seniors, particularly healthcare expenses.
The official 2027 COLA will be announced on October 14, following the release of the September inflation data. Inflation in August stood at 3.4% year-over-year, slightly higher than anticipated, partly due to increased fuel costs. Experts note that the annual nature of the COLA means benefit adjustments may not keep pace with immediate price increases throughout the year.