Key facts
- Total pending home sales in 2026 reached 429,242, up from 396,741 in 2025.
- Purchase applications have shown 22 weeks of positive year-over-year growth in 2026.
- Weekly pending sales were 72,222 in 2026, compared to 74,130 in 2025.
- Housing inventory rose to 841,547 in the week of June 26, 2026.
- The percentage of price cuts on homes was 39.05% in 2026, down from 40% in 2025.
The U.S. housing market has shown unexpected resilience in the first half of 2026, navigating geopolitical tensions related to Iran and significant oil price fluctuations. Despite oil prices exceeding $100 per barrel at one point and discussions of multiple Federal Reserve rate hikes, key housing metrics have held firm or improved.
Total pending home sales reached 429,242 in 2026, surpassing the 396,741 recorded in 2025. This growth is attributed to improved mortgage spreads, which have kept rates from rising significantly above 7%, and a slight enhancement in affordability over the past two years, coupled with wage growth outpacing home price appreciation. Purchase application data, a leading indicator for home sales, has demonstrated positive year-over-year growth for most of 2026, indicating sustained demand.
Weekly pending sales saw a minor year-over-year decline to 72,222 in 2026 from 74,130 in 2025, influenced by holiday schedules and severe weather events earlier in the year. However, mortgage rates have remained below 7% due to favorable spreads, acting as a buffer against higher inflation and oil prices. Housing inventory has seen a slowdown in year-over-year growth, with recent increases bringing the total to 841,547 by late June 2026. New listings have followed typical seasonal trends, and the percentage of homes experiencing price reductions has been lower than in the previous year.
The 10-year Treasury yield stands at 4.37%, considered a positive outcome given the inflationary pressures and oil market volatility experienced. Mortgage spreads, currently closer to their normal range of 1.60%-1.80%, have been crucial in preventing rates from climbing significantly higher. Looking ahead, the focus shifts to upcoming jobs data and its potential impact on Federal Reserve policy and interest rates.