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UK grocery inflation falls to lowest level since October 2024

Created at 18 Aug · 7:17 AM1 source↑ Market-relevant
IN SHORT

Grocery price inflation in the UK eased to 2.1% in the four weeks to August 9, its lowest point since October 2024, according to Worldpanel by Numerator. This offers further relief to households facing high living costs.

Key Numbers

2.1%UK grocery inflation in four weeks to August 9
October 2024Last time grocery inflation was this low
2.5%UK grocery sales increase year-on-year
31.3%Sales including a deal
58.4%Sun cream sales jump
26.1%Ice cream/sorbet sales increase
1.8%Tesco sales growth year-on-year (12 weeks)
3.5%Sainsbury's sales growth year-on-year (12 weeks)
15.9%Marks & Spencer grocery sales growth
13.1%Ocado grocery sales growth
8.5%Lidl grocery sales growth
-0.2%Asda sales change year-on-year (12 weeks)

Who's Involved

Worldpanel by Numerator
Market researcher reporting on UK grocery inflation
James Davey
Reuters reporter
Andy Burnham
UK Prime Minister focused on cost of living
William James
Reuters editor
Tesco
UK's leading supermarket by market share
Sainsbury's
UK's second-largest supermarket
Marks & Spencer
UK's fastest-growing food retailer
Ocado
Online supermarket, second fastest growing
Lidl
Discounter with 8.5% sales growth
Asda
UK's third-largest supermarket, sales fell 0.2%

↳ Why This Matters

The continued decline in grocery inflation provides much-needed relief for UK households facing elevated living costs, indicating a potential stabilization in consumer spending power and easing pressure on the Bank of England's monetary policy decisions.

Key facts

  • UK grocery price inflation fell to 2.1% in the four weeks to August 9.
  • This is the lowest rate recorded since October 2024.
  • Grocery sales increased by 2.5% year-on-year during the same period.
  • Tesco, the market leader, saw a 1.8% sales increase over 12 weeks, with a slight market share decrease.
  • Sainsbury's reported a 3.5% sales increase over 12 weeks.

Grocery price inflation in the UK has eased to its lowest point since October 2024, with like-for-like inflation at 2.1% in the four weeks leading up to August 9, according to market researcher Worldpanel by Numerator. This offers further relief to households struggling with the cost of living.

The easing inflation is attributed to intense competition among supermarkets, consumer resistance to price hikes, and better hedging by suppliers. Official inflation data for July is expected on Wednesday.

Overall grocery sales increased by 2.5% year-on-year during the four-week period. Shoppers increasingly turned to promotions, with 31.3% of sales including a deal. Sales of sun cream surged by 58.4% and ice cream by 26.1% due to hot weather.

In terms of market share over the 12 weeks to August 9, Tesco's sales grew 1.8% but its share slightly declined. Sainsbury's saw a 3.5% sales increase. Marks & Spencer was the fastest-growing food retailer with a 15.9% sales rise, followed by Ocado with 13.1% growth and Lidl with 8.5%. Asda's sales fell by 0.2%, marking its best performance since March 2024.

Frequently asked questions

UK grocery price inflation was 2.1% in the four weeks to August 9, according to Worldpanel by Numerator.

The current rate of 2.1% is the lowest recorded since October 2024.

Marks & Spencer was the fastest-growing food retailer with a 15.9% sales increase, followed by Ocado (13.1%) and Lidl (8.5%) over the 12 weeks to August 9.

Factors include fierce supermarket competition, consumer resistance to price rises, and better hedging by suppliers.

What Happens Next

01Official UK inflation data for July will be published on Wednesday.
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How It Developed

Grocery price inflation in the UK eased to 2.1% in the four weeks to August 9.
This marks the lowest level since October 2024.
UK grocery sales increased 2.5% year-on-year over the same four-week period.
Tesco's sales rose 1.8% year-on-year over 12 weeks to August 9, with market share edging lower.
Sainsbury's sales rose 3.5% over the same period.
Marks & Spencer reported a 15.9% rise in grocery sales.
Ocado's grocery sales increased by 13.1%.
Asda's sales fell 0.2%, its best performance since March 2024.

Sources

T1
UK grocery inflation eases further, says WorldpanelReuters

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