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Brazil's economy grew 0.2% in Q2, losing momentum

Created at 17 Aug · 12:48 PM1 source↑ Market-relevant
IN SHORT

Brazil's economy expanded 0.2% in the second quarter, according to a central bank indicator, signaling a loss of momentum from the year's strong start. The services sector, the backbone of the economy, shrank 0.1%.

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Key Numbers

0.2%Q2 economic growth
0.6%June IBC-Br index contraction
0.5%Industry growth in Q2
0.3%Agriculture growth in Q2
0.1%Services sector contraction in Q2
1.1%Q1 economic growth
4.44%12-month inflation through July
3%Central bank inflation target
14%Current interest rate

Who's Involved

Central bank
released economic activity index showing Q2 growth
IBGE
official statistics agency releasing GDP data Sept 1
Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva
President of Brazil whose credit-boosting initiatives may have faded

↳ Why This Matters

The slowdown in Brazil's economic growth, particularly in its dominant services sector, signals a loss of momentum that could impact employment and consumer spending. High interest rates, while aimed at controlling inflation, also pose a headwind to broader economic expansion.

Key facts

  • Brazil's economy grew 0.2% in the second quarter.
  • The central bank's IBC-Br index, a proxy for GDP, showed the modest expansion.
  • Services, the largest sector, contracted by 0.1%.
  • Industry grew by 0.5% and agriculture by 0.3% in the quarter.
  • The index fell 0.6% in June from May on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Brazil's economy expanded by a modest 0.2% in the second quarter compared to the previous three months, according to the central bank's IBC-Br economic activity index. This indicates a slowdown from the strong start to the year, with the crucial services sector contracting by 0.1%.

The index, considered a proxy for gross domestic product, also fell 0.6% in June from May on a seasonally adjusted basis. Official GDP figures are due from the IBGE statistics agency on September 1. In the first quarter, Latin America's largest economy had grown by 1.1%.

The positive quarterly reading was primarily driven by the industry sector, which grew 0.5%, and agriculture, which rose 0.3%. The Finance Ministry had anticipated softer growth as government support measures and credit initiatives implemented ahead of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's re-election bid began to wane.

Restrictive borrowing costs continue to impact economic activity. Despite the central bank initiating an easing cycle in March, interest rates remain high at 14% in real terms, as policymakers aim to bring inflation, which was 4.44% in the 12 months through July, closer to the 3% target.

Frequently asked questions

The IBC-Br is an economic activity index compiled by Brazil's central bank, serving as a proxy for the country's gross domestic product.

The modest growth was mainly driven by the industry sector, which expanded 0.5%, and agriculture, which rose 0.3%. The services sector, however, shrank by 0.1%.

Brazil's central bank has kept interest rates at 14%, among the highest globally in real terms, to combat inflation which stood at 4.44% in the 12 months through July, aiming for the 3% target.

What Happens Next

01Official GDP data to be released by IBGE on September 1.

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How It Developed

Brazil's economy expanded 0.2% in the second quarter.
The IBC-Br economic activity index fell 0.6% in June.
Industry expanded 0.5% from the previous quarter.
Agriculture rose 0.3% in the second quarter.
Services sector shrank 0.1% in the second quarter.
Taxes linked to production increased 0.1% in the second quarter.

Sources

T1
Brazil posts modest second-quarter growth, central bank index showsReuters

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