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Canada services PMI improves but remains in contraction

Created at 6 Aug · 1:39 PM1 source↑ Market-relevant
IN SHORT

Canada's services sector contracted for a second consecutive month in July, with the S&P Global Canada services PMI rising to 49.1 from 47.1 in June but staying below the 50 mark. Economic uncertainty, tariffs, and geopolitical events impacted demand and sentiment.

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Key Numbers

49.1Canada services PMI in July
47.1Canada services PMI in June
50no-change mark for PMI
2025lowest confidence level year
64.0Input Prices Index in July
61.2Input Prices Index in June
49.7Composite PMI in July
47.9Composite PMI in June
53.5Manufacturing PMI in July
53.0Manufacturing PMI in June

Who's Involved

S&P Global Market Intelligence
provider of Canada services PMI data
Paul Smith
economics director at S&P Global Market Intelligence
Canada services PMI improves but remains in contraction

↳ Why This Matters

The continued contraction in Canada's services sector, despite a slight improvement in the PMI, signals ongoing economic headwinds. This weakness, coupled with rising costs and low business confidence, could impact overall economic growth and employment, while geopolitical factors and tariffs add to the uncertainty.

Key facts

  • Canada's services sector contracted for the second consecutive month in July.
  • The S&P Global Canada services PMI increased to 49.1 in July from 47.1 in June.
  • New export business and overall business confidence declined.
  • Input costs, including energy and fuel expenses, saw a significant rise.
  • The composite PMI, which includes manufacturing and services, also showed a contraction at 49.7.

Canada's services sector experienced a contraction for the second consecutive month in July, according to S&P Global's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data. The Business Activity Index rose to 49.1 from 47.1 in June, but remained below the 50 threshold that indicates expansion. This downturn was attributed to economic uncertainty, depressed market demand, and a challenging business climate influenced by tariffs and geopolitical events, including new U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods.

New business also contracted for the third month in a row, with new export business seeing an accelerated decline. Business confidence in the future outlook fell to its lowest point since June 2025. Rising input costs, particularly for energy and fuel, further exacerbated the difficult environment, pushing the Input Prices Index to 64.0 from 61.2 in June.

Despite the weakness in the services sector, the S&P Global Canada Composite PMI improved to 49.7 in July from 47.9 in June. Data released earlier showed that the manufacturing sector expanded at its fastest pace in over four years, with the Manufacturing PMI rising to 53.5 from 53.0 in June.

Frequently asked questions

A PMI reading below 50 indicates a contraction in the sector, while a reading above 50 suggests expansion.

Key factors include economic uncertainty, depressed market demand, new U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods, and rising input costs, particularly for energy and fuel.

Canada's manufacturing sector expanded at its fastest pace in over four years in July, with its PMI rising to 53.5, contrasting with the contraction in the services sector.

What Happens Next

01Monitor future PMI data for signs of sustained recovery or further contraction in the services sector.
02Observe the impact of ongoing geopolitical events and tariffs on Canadian businesses and consumer demand.

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How It Developed

Canada's services sector contracted for a second straight month in July.
The headline Business Activity Index rose to 49.1 in July from 47.1 in June.
New export business contracted at an accelerated pace.
Business confidence in the outlook dropped to its lowest level since June 2025.
Input costs continued to rise steeply.
The S&P Global Canada Composite PMI rose to 49.7 from 47.9.
Canada's manufacturing PMI edged up to 53.5 in July from 53.0 in June.

Sources

T1
Canada's services PMI edges up, but sector remains in contractionReuters

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