Key facts
- China omitted denuclearization from its statement after Xi Jinping's summit with Kim Jong Un.
- This marks a significant policy shift from China's previous public stance supporting denuclearization.
- North Korea officially withdrew from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty in 2003.
- Russia has also abandoned the goal of North Korea's denuclearization.
- China's economic aid is critical for North Korea's survival, providing leverage.
- The author argues China's move affirms its long-standing support for North Korea's nuclear program.
China has signaled a significant policy shift by omitting any mention of denuclearization in its official statement following the recent summit between President Xi Jinping and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in Pyongyang. This departure from previous demands for North Korea to surrender its nuclear weapons suggests a tacit acceptance of Pyongyang as a nuclear state.
During their last meeting in 2019, China had publicly stated its role in achieving denuclearization. However, the recent summit's joint statement notably lacked this commitment. While some experts dismiss claims of a complete policy reversal as "media hype," others, like Tong Zhao of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, view Beijing's stance as a "very significant policy change to tacitly accept the reality of a nuclear North Korea."
North Korea, which joined the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty in 1985, secretly developed nuclear weapons and announced its withdrawal in 2003. It is believed to have detonated its first nuclear device in 2006. The country has since enshrined its possession of nuclear weapons in its constitution, most recently in 2023. Kim Yo Jong, Kim Jong Un's sister, recently dismissed US demands for denuclearization as an "anachronistic dream."
Russia has also seemingly abandoned the goal of North Korea's denuclearization, with Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stating respect for Pyongyang's nuclear aspirations. Historically, China's commitment to denuclearization has been questioned due to alleged transfers of nuclear materials and technology to North Korea and its consistent shielding of the regime internationally.
The dominant narrative suggests Beijing's shift is partly driven by competition with Moscow for influence in Pyongyang. However, North Korea's critical dependence on China for foreign trade, accounting for approximately 95 percent before recent Russian arms deals, suggests China retains significant leverage. Experts like Charles Burton note that North Korea's survival hinges on China's economic aid, implying Beijing can control the extent of any Russia-North Korea alliance.
Greg Scarlatoiu posits that China supports North Korea's nuclear program as a means to exert leverage over Washington, viewing it as a "thorn in the side of the United States." The author, Gordon G. Chang, concludes that Beijing's apparent dropping of the denuclearization demand is not a reversal but an affirmation of China's long-standing support for North Korea's nuclear weapons program, characterizing the actions of both Pyongyang and Beijing as a highly successful denial and deception operation.