Key facts
- A World Health Organization study estimates a 70% probability of Ebola reaching South Sudan.
- The current Ebola outbreak, originating in the Democratic Republic of Congo, has already spread to Uganda.
- South Sudan is considered at high risk due to its weak public health infrastructure.
- Uganda has recorded 20 confirmed cases and three deaths from the Bundibugyo ebolavirus strain.
- Researchers recommend reinforcing infection prevention, rapid response capacity, and cross-border surveillance in South Sudan.
A World Health Organization (WHO) modelling study has warned of a significant risk of Ebola spilling over into South Sudan, estimating a 70% chance of the virus reaching the country. The current Ebola outbreak, which originated in the Democratic Republic of Congo and has already spread to neighboring Uganda, poses a substantial threat to South Sudan due to its perceived weak public health infrastructure.
Researchers highlighted critical gaps in South Sudan's capacity for case management, contact tracing, safe burial practices, and border surveillance. Uganda has already reported 20 confirmed cases and three deaths from the Bundibugyo ebolavirus strain, underscoring the virus's potential for rapid spread across borders. The study suggests that the outbreak in the DRC may have begun spreading undetected in communities as early as April 2026.
To mitigate the risk, the WHO and researchers are urging South Sudan to immediately reinforce infection prevention and control measures, enhance rapid response capabilities, and strengthen cross-border surveillance. Neighboring countries like Rwanda and Burundi are considered at comparatively lower risk, but all nations bordering affected areas are advised to implement public health measures promptly, especially in the absence of a specific vaccine for the Bundibugyo strain.