US, Iran nearing peace deal, differing on signing timeline

The United States and Iran appear to be on the verge of signing a peace deal, though significant differences remain regarding the timeline and specific terms. President Donald Trump has expressed optimism, stating the agreement could be signed as early as Sunday and that it would prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.

Trump announced on his Truth Social platform that the deal is scheduled for signing, immediately following which the Strait of Hormuz would be "open to all." He also indicated that the US would eventually secure and destroy Iran's nuclear material. According to Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, the agreement comprises 14 points, with the first being the lifting of the US blockade on Iranian ports. The memorandum of understanding (MoU) also reportedly calls for an end to hostilities across all fronts, including Lebanon, and an agreement not to initiate war. Frozen Iranian assets are expected to be released upon signing.

However, Iran has disputed the timeline for the signing, suggesting it could occur in the "coming days." There is ambiguity surrounding the format and content of the signing, with reports indicating that both sides are mixing MoU provisions with their final goals to present the deal favorably to the public. The nuclear issue and the removal of US sanctions are slated for discussion in a second stage of negotiations, with Iran maintaining that its enriched uranium should be diluted domestically.

Despite the diplomatic progress, Israeli military activity has continued in Lebanon, with airstrikes and shelling reported. Hezbollah has also engaged Israeli soldiers. Meanwhile, analysts suggest Trump's primary focus is preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, framing this as the main victory, with other aspects like reopening the Strait of Hormuz or calming markets as positive byproducts. The specifics of verifying Iran's nuclear material and potential destruction timelines are expected to be worked out in a 60-day window following the MoU's signing.