Analysts suggest a US-Iran deal aimed at de-escalating tensions leaves Gulf states feeling vulnerable to Iranian proxies and missiles, frustrated by an unreliable US ally. The agreement reportedly fails to address core security concerns, prompting regional powers to seek their own channels with Iran.
The perceived unreliability of the US security umbrella and a deal that overlooks key regional concerns could force Gulf states to pursue independent diplomatic and security strategies, potentially altering regional power dynamics and increasing instability.
Gulf states are expressing frustration and concern over a potential US-Iran deal, with analysts suggesting it leaves them exposed to Iranian threats and undermines their security interests. The impending memorandum of understanding, aimed at extending a ceasefire for 60 days, is seen by experts as a temporary measure that fails to address critical issues such as Iran's missile capabilities and regional militia networks.
This sentiment stems from a history of Iranian attacks, including blockades of the Strait of Hormuz, which pose an existential threat to the Gulf's economic model. While Iran has agreed to reopen the vital waterway, a key demand from Gulf nations, the deal is criticized for sidelining their core security concerns. Experts like Hasan Alhasan of the International Institute for Strategic Studies note that the agreement may grant Iran's proxies immunity and that Iran has made fewer concessions than in previous negotiations.
Gulf leaders, who had close ties with President Donald Trump and supported his withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal, now feel the US security umbrella has faltered, forcing them to "fend for themselves," according to Andreas Krieg, a security expert at King's College London. This perceived unreliability is prompting countries in the region to seek their own diplomatic channels with Iran to protect their interests.
Despite a recent lull in attacks, particularly from the UAE, and pragmatic de-escalation efforts by nations like Qatar, the underlying tensions remain. Media reports have alleged financial dealings between the UAE and Iran, which Abu Dhabi denies. Qatar, host to a major US base, has actively engaged in negotiations to secure Gulf interests. Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, is strengthening regional alliances to bolster its diplomatic efforts.
Experts like Neil Quilliam highlight that the recent conflict has demonstrated the limits of American power and Iran's capacity to retaliate and leverage the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump's suggestion that Gulf states should pay for US protection further exacerbates the situation, with analysts like Alhasan describing it as "blackmail" by both Iran and the United States. The situation leaves Gulf states caught between an emboldened Iran and an unreliable US alliance, facing continued uncertainty and potential exploitation of their security concerns for geopolitical leverage.