Key facts
- Ukraine has threatened to disable Russian drone relay equipment in Belarus if President Lukashenko does not act.
- President Zelensky claimed the equipment stopped operating on June 22, days after the ultimatum.
- The move signifies a strategic shift, with Ukraine directly pressuring Belarus.
- Experts believe Lukashenko is concerned about potential Ukrainian strikes on Belarusian oil refineries and his personal safety.
- Ukraine is seeking a complete halt to Belarus's military cooperation with Russia.
Ukraine has issued a direct ultimatum to Belarus, threatening to disable Russian drone relay equipment operating within Belarusian territory if President Alexander Lukashenko does not comply. This marks a significant strategic shift, as Kyiv is now willing to directly pressure Minsk rather than treating Belarus solely as a staging ground for Russian military operations.
President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on June 19 that relay systems mounted on communication towers in two Belarusian regions bordering Ukraine were being used to help coordinate Russian drone attacks against civilian areas. He warned that if Lukashenko did not switch off the equipment, Ukraine would. For nearly a week, Lukashenko remained silent.
On June 24, Zelensky claimed that the equipment had stopped operating in Belarusian territory as of June 22, though he was unsure if it had been dismantled. The State Border Guard spokesperson confirmed a decrease in Russian drone raids along the Belarus-Ukraine border, offering indirect confirmation. Lukashenko broke his silence on June 25, warning that Ukraine's approach would instantly change the quality of the war, and met with Russian President Vladimir Putin the following day.
Experts suggest that Lukashenko's decision to de-escalate is likely driven by his understanding of Belarus's exposure to potential Ukrainian strikes, particularly on its oil refineries, which are a key source of revenue. Concerns for his personal safety are also cited as a factor. Ukraine's new strategy appears to be seeking an end to Belarus's military cooperation with Russia, moving beyond tactical concessions.
Previously, Ukraine had focused on disabling drone repeaters, which enable real-time targeting adjustments for drones like the Shahed. While earlier versions were pre-programmed, newer technology allows for operator control or mission changes on the fly. Experts note that while the equipment may have been suppressed by electronic warfare or cyberattacks, the focus on these relays may overshadow the broader issue of Belarusian enterprises supporting the war effort, including oil refineries supplying fuel for military needs.