Key facts
- Ukraine has reinforced its northern border defenses due to increased Russian drone activity from Belarus.
- Russian intelligence drones flying from Belarusian airspace have risen by about 20% since January.
- Officials in Kyiv are concerned about Belarus's deepening involvement in Russia's war against Ukraine.
- Russia has reportedly built new drone bases near the Belarusian border.
- Former Ukrainian officials suggest Belarus may be preparing for war.
- Ukraine is enhancing fortifications and preparing potential strike targets in Belarus.
Ukraine is bolstering its defenses along its northern border with Belarus amid escalating concerns that Minsk is being drawn more deeply into Russia's war. Since the beginning of the year, there has been a notable increase in Russian intelligence drones flying from Belarusian airspace into Ukraine, prompting Kyiv to reinforce fortifications with anti-tank ditches and obstacles.
Ukrainian officials, including President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, have voiced concerns about "unusual activity" on the border, suggesting Russia is attempting to integrate Belarus further into its war efforts. This comes as Russia and Belarus accused Ukraine of a drone strike on a bus carrying Belarusian schoolchildren, an allegation Ukraine denies. Reports indicate Belarus has expanded infrastructure to support Russian operations, including logistics and surveillance, using its territory as an air corridor for attacks.
Former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba has stated that Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko's current actions differ from 2022 and suggest preparation for war. Political scientist Maksym Pleshko noted that Russia, facing a stalemate, is pressuring Lukashenko for greater military involvement. However, some experts, like Yevhen Mahda, are skeptical about Belarusian troops actively supporting Moscow, especially given warnings from Ukrainian forces commander Robert Brovdi about potential targets within Belarus.
Analysts suggest that Moscow may seek to use Belarus to broaden the geographical scope of the conflict, not necessarily by opening a new front, but by increasing its operational involvement. Ukraine's Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha stated that Moscow is increasingly dragging Belarus into its war, turning it into a platform for aggression against both Ukraine and Europe. Ukrainian border forces are actively improving defenses, citing a lack of trust in Belarus and the need to be prepared for any scenario, including joint nuclear exercises. Local residents also report observing a significant number of Russian drones daily.