Key facts
- Two Nato eastern flank countries have warned of potential Russian provocations in the Baltic states or Poland.
Nato's eastern flank countries have warned of potential Russian provocations in the Baltic states or Poland, aiming to test the alliance's cohesion. Western sources fear these actions could be a response to Ukraine's long-range attacks on Russian territory.
These warnings suggest a potential escalation of the conflict beyond Ukraine, posing a direct security challenge to Nato members and testing the alliance's resolve and unity.
Nato's eastern flank countries have issued warnings about potential Russian provocations in the Baltic states or Poland, aimed at testing the western military alliance's unity. Western sources are concerned that these actions could be a response to Ukraine's ongoing long-range attacks on targets within Russia.
Latvian intelligence reported indications of Russia preparing military provocations, though not a full-scale assault. A senior political source from another Nato member corroborated these concerns, suggesting Vladimir Putin might be testing US commitment to smaller Nato members like Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. These potential actions are seen as a way for Russia to 'throw the dice' amid struggles in its invasion of Ukraine.
While specific details remain limited, the warnings come as Russia's advance in Ukraine has stalled. Experts suggest Moscow may seek to disrupt the current trend through 'horizontal escalation' or other means. Russia's relative weakness was highlighted when drone relay stations in Belarus ceased operating after Ukraine threatened to attack them.
Nato is scheduled to hold its annual summit in Ankara, Turkey, this month, with questions raised about US commitment to the alliance. Donald Trump has voiced disappointment with European allies. Since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, there have been instances of Russian sabotage and provocative activities, including decoy drones entering Polish airspace.
Ukraine has developed its own deep strike capabilities, hitting targets within Russia. A western military source expressed concern that Russia might retaliate if Putin feels pressured, particularly as the war impacts Russian cities like Moscow and St Petersburg. Similar worries about Russian escalation, including the potential use of nuclear weapons, arose in late 2022.